The Fed Is Either Too Late Or Too Early, But Certainly Not Just Right

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Harrison Roger
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If market economists have the Fed right, in about 60 days from now Janet Yellen, chairwoman of the Federal Reserve, will announce the first Federal Reserve rate hike in about 9 years. With the first rate hike pending, an obvious question is – Does the Fed have the timing right? If you’re looking at year-over-year growth in Retail Sales, Industrial Production, and Capacity Utilization, the answer is a clear no. Here’s a look. Retail Sales vs Fed tightening cycles The following graphic is a look at year-over-year growth in Retail Sales overlaid with the Federal Funds target interest rate. Fascinatingly,…

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Roger is an economic adviser and active angel investor. He owns various economics firms. His work allows him a diverse group of clients across the globe, including the United States, Europe, and Asia. He holds a Ph.D. in business economics.

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