Crispin Odey Warns: “The Risks Have Been Rising All Around”

As markets have been bouncing quite heavily recently, “we’ve had a pretty good time,” hedge fund manager Crispin Odey told clients in a conference call June 30, a recording of which was obtained by ValueWalk. The London born and bred hedge fund manager’s world view is not limited to Brexit, an event he accurately modeled and reportedly made double digit profits in its wake.

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One of Britian’s wealthiest men sees a significant global trend that extends across the European Union experiment and into the US. This trend will impact investors but mostly central banks, shaking them to their foundation. Most meaningful, traditionally private economic discussions are becoming public despite certain words being repressed from even being used in elite company, Odey says.  There are ugly topics that the economic establishment does not want to address. Donald Trump, populist parties across Europe and Brexit are not the start of the societal trend and they won't be the end. If the real issues remain un-addressed the problem will only grow.

The economic discussions censored from public view are most important

It doesn’t matter if an investor has a terminal or multiple subscriptions to high caliper research, there are certain words, topics and economic discussions that are effectively censored from "public" view.

Crispin Odey’s client conference call might be one of them. In fact, in it he addressed "censored words" that were not allowed in the polite economic public square.

The nature of Odey's comments are perhaps a similar vein to recent commentary from JPMorgan’s Marko Kolanovic. Kolanovic's accusation that central banks are actively manipulating markets, much like Paul Singer's earlier pronouncement, went generally unreported. Like evidence regarding the blocking of investigations into MF Global and the whisper topic behind big bank derivatives, certain issues, it can be argued, are forbidden from seeing the light of day.

Brexit was at one point among these heavily controlled economic discussions.

[dalio]