At the 2025 Robin Hood Investors Conference, Roger Ferguson Jr., former Vice Chair of the Federal Reserve, discussed past Fed policy, productivity trends, central bank independence, and the future of capitalism with Natalia Chefer, Managing Director, of The DE Shaw Group as moderator.
Also see our coverage of the 2024 Robin Hood Investors Conference, 2023 Robin Hood Investors Conference, and the 2018 Robin Hood Investors Conference.
D.E. Shaw Lens on Tech Booms and the Fed: Productivity, Debt, and Independence
Looking back at the 1990s
Joined the Fed in the 1990s. At the time, Greenspan thought the tech boom was sustainable. Some of that proved right, but it ended with the dot-com bust. The question is what we were thinking about monetary policy then and what we would do differently now.
Pretty obvious setup: a tech boom led to a productivity boom. We think we are in a tech boom now that could lead to another productivity boom, but we have not seen it in the data yet. Check, check, check. All seems likely.
Back then the tech boom was spread across the whole economy but driven by a lot of companies that were not viable. This time feels different. Much of what is going on in markets is tied to real companies. Think the “Mag 7.” They are real businesses and the generative AI wave has real utility behind it.
Can you see it before it shows up in the numbers. Right now we are seeing some increase in productivity. The real productivity jump still feels on the come. We expect it to show up, but it is not obviously there yet.
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