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Long Dollar & U.S. Stocks Most Crowded Trade, Says BofA

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Mark Melin
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When investing concepts of mean reversion and too many people in a trade collide, watch out. It might be time for that trade to be ending.

A new Bank of America Merrill Lynch report warns that the “U.S. decoupling trade,” long stocks and the dollar, is now “crowded.”

crowded-trade

Lower energy prices supportive for US equities and the US Dollar

Citing CFTC speculative positions being at a 52-week extreme, irrational exuberance and the magnitude of positioning in the trade is now “reaching a dangerous level,” B. of A. strategists were quoted as saying:

 “The collapse in oil prices over the past two months has provided a further boost to the US decoupling trade as...

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Mark Melin is an alternative investment practitioner whose specialty is recognizing the impact of beta market environment on a technical trading strategy. A portfolio and industry consultant, wrote or edited three books including High Performance Managed Futures (Wiley 2010) and The Chicago Board of Trade’s Handbook of Futures and Options (McGraw-Hill 2008) and taught a course at Northwestern University's executive education program.