European non-financials have had mixed fourth quarter results so far, but strong PMI and low wages suggest that sales and margin growth could be considerably stronger than consensus, and Barclay’s analyst Ian Scott tells investors to “keep faith in the fundamentals.”
“Incoming economic data strongly endorse our (and other economists’) recovery projections, yet the consensus for top-line revenues and bottom-line earnings is inconsistent with this outlook,” Scott writes.
PMI indicates strong GDP growth
The purchasing manager’s index (PMI) is a strong leading indicator for GDP growth, and it has moved up sharply in the last quarter, suggesting that Eurozone GDP should follow suit. Scott estimates that nominal GDP growth of 2.5% would drive stock prices up by 6%, compared...
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