At the 2025 Robin Hood Investors Conference, Shayne Coplan of Polymarket discussed the evolution of prediction markets and their practical applications with Boaz Weinstein of Saba Capital.

Also see our coverage of the 2024 Robin Hood Investors Conference, 2023 Robin Hood Investors Conference, and the 2018 Robin Hood Investors Conference.

See Weinstein’s Bet Against the London Whale

Betting on the Future: Prediction Markets Move From Curiosity to Portfolio Input

Setting the room

Boaz Weinstein: “I am a moderator. It is only the second time I have ever been a moderator for a fireside, the first time was Stan Druckenmiller, so we have big shoes to fill. I am honored to interview Shayne, the man of the hour.”

Weinstein added the headline that framed the session: Intercontinental Exchange, the parent of the New York Stock Exchange, agreed to invest up to 2 billion dollars in Polymarket at about a 9 billion valuation.

What Polymarket is

Shayne Coplan explained Polymarket in plain language. Each market asks a yes or no question. Yes and No shares pay 1 dollar if correct. The live price equals the crowd’s probability, discovered in an open order book.

“For every question you have a yes and a no share and whatever the share that is correct in terms of the outcome of reality you get one dollar per share. At any given moment you see the price of yes shares and that is the equivalent of the likelihood of the event happening.” — Shayne Coplan

“If there was important news or there was a breakthrough the price would go up, whereas if there was big news and the price did not move, it would be the market telling you that the news is sensationalist.” — Shayne Coplan

Why build it now

Coplan traced his path back to pandemic era debates, reading Hayek and Robin Hanson, and wanting a simple interface that turns noise into probabilities.

“No one had really built a product that brought this idea to life. The goal was to build an intuitive product that effectively brought prediction markets into reality.” — Shayne Coplan

Deep dive: Spirit Airlines shows how wording and timing decide P&L

Weinstein referenced “Spirit Airlines and all this analysis about business prospects” to illustrate how markets create incentives for deep research. A specific contract shows why the fine print pays. The market asked: “Will Spirit Airlines announce bankruptcy by Jan 31, 2024.” The rule page stated that an announcement by 11:59 p.m. Eastern on January 31 would resolve Yes, even if the filing occurred later. That announcement did not arrive by the cutoff, so the market resolved No.