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P/E Multiple Expansion Accounted for 135% of the S&P 500 Return in 2015: Goldman

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Mark Melin
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In one year from now, stock market investors, as benchmarked by the S&P 500, can expect a mere 1.1 percent yearly return on their investment, predicts a Goldman Sachs research piece. The blame for this relatively pedestrian performance is a price earnings multiples finding gravity.

P/E multiple - Watch for lower price earnings multiples

As the U.S. Federal Reserve begins to raise interest rates, on the path to making “cash” a viable investment option once again, the Goldman report said it expected a stock market value adjustment in forward P/E multiples, contracting to 16 times earnings in the second half of 2015. With forward P/E multiples on consensus earnings having risen by 2 percent in 2015, up to 17.1 percent from...

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Mark Melin is an alternative investment practitioner whose specialty is recognizing the impact of beta market environment on a technical trading strategy. A portfolio and industry consultant, wrote or edited three books including High Performance Managed Futures (Wiley 2010) and The Chicago Board of Trade’s Handbook of Futures and Options (McGraw-Hill 2008) and taught a course at Northwestern University's executive education program.