M&A Is More Likely As Target CEOs Approach Retirement

Between 1990 and 2012, of the more than 6,000 acquisitions with publicly available data, shareholders received a median 36% premium over the pre-announcement price creating roughly $1.7 trillion in shareholder value. So as M&A activity picks back up many investors are looking for likely targets, but in addition to the financial details that drive such deals investors may need to ask if the CEO is looking forward to retirement.

“Controlling for CEO and firm characteristics and the 1997-99 merger wave, the implied probability that a firm receives a successful takeover bid is close to 4.4% per year for CEOs just below retirement age, but it increases to 5.8% for CEOs aged 64-66,” write Stanford professor Dirk Jenter and Dartmouth...