The Fed Boiling Frog Strategy

With the US Federal Reserve set to meet Tuesday and Wednesday, and interest rates expected to rise as a result, what will the rate hike path look like in 2018? To Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s Global Economist Ethan Harris, understanding the Fed and their future actions requires taking a long view that goes beyond one rate hike. Going back to 2016 he notes an increasingly hawkish central bank not just by the words they use, but by their actions. With the markets basically nonplused to rate hikes of late, he expects central bankers to be emboldened in 2018 and is keeping his eye on the yield curve to benchmark the action.

[dalio]