Too Early To Break Ground On A Homebuilding Recovery – Searching High And Low For Conviction

Too Early To Break Ground On A Homebuilding Recovery – Searching High and Low for Conviction

Homebuilding stocks have benefited from the “Trump bump,” but to a much smaller extent than the broader indices, indicating homebuilders remain out of favor despite a steadily improving housing market. Year-to-date, the S&P 1500 Homebuilding Sub-Industry Index is only up 0.9%, versus the 12.3% gain in the S&P 1500, and the sub-industry is still 6% below its late July peak.

Macro indicators of the housing market remain strong. New and existing home sales have been in a steady up-trend for several years with new home sales in October showing close to 18% growth year-over-year. October housing starts rose to the best level since August 2007. The...