Black Friday By The Numbers

With everyone out shopping today, we’ll soon be seeing the usual slew of Black Friday data (and the instant economic analysis that goes along with it).

The media tends to spin Black Friday sales into a narrative of how strong the holiday shopping season will be and how well the economy is doing. But should we take those reports at face value? The fact is that consumer behavior has changed over the past several years, and so has the significance of Black Friday shopping numbers.

Spending on a downward course

Let’s start by looking at Black Friday numbers from the National Retail Federation, which provide a reasonable first cut.

Black Friday

Based...