Philip Tetlock With Jason Zweig- The Perilous Task Of Forecasting

Philip Tetlock - The Perilous Task Of Forecasting via The Wall Street Journal

Wharton’s Philip Tetlock on how forecasters can do better

To get business right, finance chiefs need to be good forecasters. Yet research has shown that amateurs can actually be better than experts at predicting the future.

Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal’s investing columnist, sat down with Philip Tetlock, a professor at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School and the co-author of "Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction," to explore why that is and what companies can learn from it.

Edited excerpts follow.

Vague verbiage

Jason Zweig: Why is it so hard for experts to make forecasts about things in their own...