Goodbye, Growth Scare; Hello, Growth Spurt! – The Bull & Bear Case

Goodbye, Growth Scare; Hello, Growth Spurt! – The Bull & Bear Case by Evergreen Gavekal

“We really can’t forecast all that well, and yet we pretend that we can, but we really can’t.” – Alan Greenspan

Summary

Bullish Summary

• The latest growth scare is over, and the US economy is set to accelerate.
• The risks that drove the latest panic in global markets (US growth, oil oversupply, and a Chinese currency devaluation) were overblown and have begun to recede.
• Credit spreads (the gap between what corporate and government bonds yield) peaked in February and have narrowed considerably in recent weeks. Given their extreme importance to the economy and financial markets, this is great news.
• – This environment is more like the 2011 correction than...
  

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