Chinese Renminbi, U.S. Dollar And 'Hot Money' Outflows

Chinese Renminbi, U.S. Dollar And 'Hot Money' Outflows by Dan Steinbock, Difference Group

As China’s renminbi has been included in the IMF elite currencies and the Fed has started its rate hikes, conventional wisdom sees the RMB weakening and US dollar strengthening as simple long-term trends. The realities are far more complex, however.

In “Crashing the SDR,” the academic Benjamin J. Cohen, who once worked in the Federal Reserve and has lectured to US diplomats, says the IMF’s decision will set a worrying precedent. “What was once the dignified preserve of obviously elite currencies,” he argues, “could become the site of messy political battles for elevated status.”

The counter-argument is that the renminbi inclusion marked the most important change to...