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China's July Leverage Data Comes In Hot, Drawing Rebuke From IMF

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Mark Melin
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It is often difficult to ascertain the actual level of credit and liquidity in China, as the “shadow banking" segment is near $8.5 trillion strong. But China’s Total Social Financing (TSF) data, released Tuesday, attempts to do just that. China's Leverage data came in hotter than anticipated, a Bernstein report noted. While the number decreased, it was due, in part, to a drop in shadow bank lending. But China's Leverage  reduction last month is not enough to satisfy the International Monetary Fund, which warned China is on a “dangerous trajectory,” as debt is being used to engineer growth to an unhealthy degree, a charge China denies.

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China's Leverage

China's Leverage TSF number...

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Mark Melin is an alternative investment practitioner whose specialty is recognizing the impact of beta market environment on a technical trading strategy. A portfolio and industry consultant, wrote or edited three books including High Performance Managed Futures (Wiley 2010) and The Chicago Board of Trade’s Handbook of Futures and Options (McGraw-Hill 2008) and taught a course at Northwestern University's executive education program.