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Macquarie: Central Banks Extending Kondratieff's Autumn

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Mark Melin
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There is a growing theory that relatively predictable market cycles are coming to an end thanks to central bank quantitative stimulus. Macquarie analysts Viktor Shvets and Chetan Seth, reviewing Kondratieff wave theory, note that the system that has generally helped analysts model economic waves might be muted in the quantitative era. Central banks, in creating a perpetual  autumn, might be creating a "mop up" mission that cannot yet be modeled.

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Kondratieff' type 2 error Type 1 error low terminal rate Economic Sentiment Janet Yellen Fed Federal Reserve and if you can add also QE quantitative easing interest rates ZIRP rising rates treasuries Ben Bernanke macro Helicopter Money

Kondratieff wave theory has four...

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Mark Melin is an alternative investment practitioner whose specialty is recognizing the impact of beta market environment on a technical trading strategy. A portfolio and industry consultant, wrote or edited three books including High Performance Managed Futures (Wiley 2010) and The Chicago Board of Trade’s Handbook of Futures and Options (McGraw-Hill 2008) and taught a course at Northwestern University's executive education program.