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Morgan Stanley: Deleveraging Going Fine But China Is A Worry

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Mark Melin
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Global Deleveraging - Using dulcet tones, a Morgan Stanley report on global debt and deleveraging notes progress but warns against a rapid expansion of the interest rate tightening cycle. As a result, don’t expect much more than a “tepid recovery in private demand.” What to watch is the debt deleveraging relative to economic growth as well as debt to GDP ratios that could “pose financial stability risks.”

 

ms-debt-and-leverage-gdp-levels Global Deleveraging
Global Deleveraging

US households are pulling out of their balance sheet recession, but corporate debt grows

With debt to GDP ratios continuing to climb – the US ratio is near 104%, up from 64.8% in 2007 –...

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Mark Melin is an alternative investment practitioner whose specialty is recognizing the impact of beta market environment on a technical trading strategy. A portfolio and industry consultant, wrote or edited three books including High Performance Managed Futures (Wiley 2010) and The Chicago Board of Trade’s Handbook of Futures and Options (McGraw-Hill 2008) and taught a course at Northwestern University's executive education program.