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Initial Claims Surprise, But Really Are Flashing A Warning Sign

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Harrison Roger
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Updated on
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The market’s generally been ignoring the economic indicators this week.  It’s no surprise given the bigger economic indicators due out next week, including the biggest of them all – the BLS’ employment situation report – to be released next Friday.

Initial Claims: Summary

Here’s a summary of today’s indicators.

  • Initial Claims were 311K, 19K better than what analysts expected and 10K better than last week.
  • Continuing Claims were 2.2823 million, about 77K better than expectations and down an incredible 53K from the prior week.
  • The labor market, as measured by the claims numbers, is certainly better.  The big swings also probably point to problems in the seasonal adjustment process; next week’s numbers are likely to be higher given the gigantic drops this week.
  • The...

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Roger is an economic adviser and active angel investor. He owns various economics firms. His work allows him a diverse group of clients across the globe, including the United States, Europe, and Asia. He holds a Ph.D. in business economics.