Economists generally see the yield curve as a reasonably good indication of where the economy is heading.
Yield Curve from 1970-2014
Here’s an animated GIF of the yield curve from 1970 to March 2014.
The GIF shows the inverted yield curve briefly in the early 1970s, coinciding with NBER’s December 1969 to November 1970 recession.
After 1970, the yield curve generally floated in a normal range.
That changed in mid-1973, coinciding with the oil crisis and the onset of stagnation. The yield curve stayed in the inverted shape until mid-1974, after which it returned to normal. The mid-1970s recession officially ended in March 1975.
The economy performed decently until mid-1978, at which point the yield...
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