It looks as though the SPR draws have picked up again…….We are now at ~43% of the SPR that has been emptied since Biden took office. This is going to matter…a lot at some point.
Q1 2023 hedge fund letters, conferences and more
We have gone from ~42 days of inventory in the SPR (assuming 15Mbpd usage) down to ~24
“Davidson” submits:
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Total US Crude Inv unchanged(working inv rose 2.9mil BBL & SPR declined 2.9mil BBL) US Crude Prod unchanged at 12.3ml BBL/Day, US Crude Imports rose 1mil to 2.7mil BBL/Day, Fudge factor 0.77mil BBL/Day(5.4mil BBL/Week)
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US Gasoline Inv declined 3mil BBL. Jet fuel inv rose a little while Diesel fuel declined, Exports Refined Prod remained low
The US appears to have accelerated releases from the SPR, this week 2.9mil BBL lower from the 2mil pace of recent weeks. The Fudge factor adjusted crude production of 14.9mil BBL/Day with low exports of Refined Prod and flat Total Inv indicates the rise in crude consumption of recent months is real. Note US Exports of Refined Prod in the chart is near the COVID lows while adjusted US crude production is 1.1-1.2mil BBL/Day above pre-COVID levels.
US domestic consumption has expanded and continues in an uptrend, perhaps even accelerating. The interpretation is that this must be due to manufacturing expansion. This coincides with employment and vehicle sales trends.
