Superforecasting And The Qualities of Prediction

On Wall Street, a good forecast can mean the difference between a multi-million dollar profit, or loss, which is why the finance industry spends tens of millions of dollars every year employing analysts to try and predict the future. The problem is, history has shown the predictions of analysts and economists to be unreliable for the most part. As a result, the need for an accurate outlook is leading firms towards so-called Superforecasting, which seeks to exploit the wisdom of crowds. Popularized by Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner’s 2015 book, Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction, superforecasting compiles…