Putin took a gamble and lost. The bet: Ukraine would fall once Russia invaded. They would meet scant resistance. It was supposed to be so easy that Russian soldiers brought their victory parade uniform. What fueled that thinking was that Russia had a secret network of pro-Russian agents that infiltrated the Ukrainian state at different levels. Putin believed that, aided by these agents, Russia would require only a small military force and a few days to force Ukraine to capitulate. But the agents overstated their influence. The problem in a dictatorship is you always say what the leadership wants to hear because otherwise you won’t get paid, or you will be out of the job. And with bad intel comes bad decisions. We know the rest of the story. Zelenskiy did not capitulate. Zelenskiy said something that will go down in history as one of the most gangster things ever said by a leader. Once offered by the US to get out of Dodge, Zelenskiy reportedly said “I need ammunition, not a ride.”
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If Putin would have won his bet, the ultimate payoff would have been the revival of the USSR. A victory would have fuel that idea that Putin is the only one who can restore the greatness of Russia. We would have a very different conversation today. An easy victory would have made Putin overconfident, pump up his ego, the approval of the Russian people, and the smaller countries in Russia’s orbit would have followed like fallen dominoes. What are you going to do? Take on a nuclear power over Moldova? The thinking was the US lost its way and Europe is too dependent on Russia’s gas to do anything. Nobody has the stomach for a fight. I can’t blame Putin for thinking that. That’s what everybody thoughted. But the Ukrainian’s will to fight for their land and sovereignty convinced everybody otherwise.
Quick detour: Food for thoughts, let’s say, theoretically speaking, that everything Putin said about Ukraine was true, that Ukraine was a country full of Nazis on drugs that needed to be eliminated, don’t you think he would have support of the the whole planet? He wouldn’t have to do any convincing. Israel would have been the first to invade. Anyway…
Putin lost the gamble. Instead of being the next Peter the Great, he’s looking more like Nicholas II. He was the last Czar of the Romanov family. Long story short, it didn’t end well, and history is not too kind to Russian rulers that don’t deliver, and Putin is a historian.
Putin’s powerbase is fuel by the social contract he made with his people. Give me power and in exchange I will stabilize the country. That contract is now broken. He destabilized Russia. The economy is taking a hit, the war in Ukraine is not going well, the losses are heavy, Russia is losing young people, mothers are losing their sons, and his mobilization is a total mess. Some reports estimate 75,000 to 80,000 dead Russian soldiers. That’s a lot of grieving parents. For what? The future looks bleak. They have taken young men off factories and farms. Many talented people left the country. Inflation will hit Russia hard. Instead of turning Ukraine into a failed state, it’s Russian that’s turning into one.
Putin totally discredited himself in the eyes of his own people when he said that his “special military operation” was going to plan to then call for a mobilization. Because now the war hit home. Putin now finds himself in a protracted, full-scale war, fighting for every inch of territory at huge cost. Putin is not making any gains in Ukraine and domestic dissent to Putin is growing more vocal by the day. I’m pretty sure the Russian elite, its bureaucrats, the establishment and inner circle are thinking about life after Putin.
Putin lost the gamble and he’s trying to cut his losses. Putin is probably trying to hold on to as much occupied territory as possible to turn it into a Russian state. My guess is that he’s looking for a way to bring the big power (USA+NATO+Europe) to the table to negotiate some kind of deal. Putin needs to save face. The threat of nuclear weapons will bring the powers to the table, like they did in 1963 during the Cuban Missile crisis. Unless Putin is removed from power, his only leverage is edging closer to brink. I hope it doesn’t get to that, but he doesn’t have a lot of cards left to play.
Putin can’t pull out of Ukraine. Doing so will shatter is strong leader image. It would make him look so weak a home. A defeat might well lead to the collapse of the Putin regime. Remember Putin built his brand around being a source of stability and strength. So he can’t get out and he can’t win. And Ukraine said they want all their land back. My guess the best option for Putin is statis, a long gradual losing war of attrition.
If Russian soldiers keep dying, with the failure of the war, with the economy is disarray, with the sense of failure and imminent disaster everywhere, Russia will be on the verge of total collapse of morale. You need one major regiment to mutiny and other regiments will follow. Why not? The troops in Ukraine are poorly motivated, poorly trained and undersupplied, and their officers had no reason to be loyal to the regime. The biggest threat to Putin is not the West or Ukraine. It’s inside Russia.
