There is a growing theory that relatively predictable market cycles are coming to an end thanks to central bank quantitative stimulus. Macquarie analysts Viktor Shvets and Chetan Seth, reviewing Kondratieff wave theory, note that the system that has generally helped analysts model economic waves might be muted in the quantitative era. Central banks, in creating a perpetual autumn, might be creating a “mop up” mission that cannot yet be modeled. [dalio] Kondratieff wave theory has four seasons, with winter the most dreaded When Nikolai Kondratieff developed his wave theory in 1926, it was not popular in Stalinist Russia. In fact,…
Macquarie: Central Banks Extending Kondratieff's Autumn
Mark Melin
Mark Melin is an alternative investment practitioner whose specialty is recognizing the impact of beta market environment on a technical trading strategy. A portfolio and industry consultant, wrote or edited three books including High Performance Managed Futures (Wiley 2010) and The Chicago Board of Trade’s Handbook of Futures and Options (McGraw-Hill 2008) and taught a course at Northwestern University's executive education program.