Praetorian Capital Up 16.4% In Q1; Long Marex Thesis [Q1 Letter]

Praetorian Capital’s commentary for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026.

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During the first quarter of 2026, the Praetorian Capital Fund LLC (the “Fund”) appreciated by 16.44% net of fees. Given the Fund’s concentrated portfolio structure and focus on asymmetric opportunities, I anticipate that the Fund will be rather volatile from quarter to quarter. During the first quarter, our core portfolio positions appreciated decently, while the Event-Driven book produced a small gain.

During the spring and summer of 2025, I took an extended vacation to try and understand why our portfolio wasn’t performing in line with my expectations. Through that journey, I worked to crystalize a new economic model to explain the sluggish performance of our businesses, consummating in my new narrative of Economic Feudalism as the current global economic model. Suddenly, with this theory in hand, I could understand why the global economy appeared mired in recession, and I could better understand the sorts of investments that would prosper in those economic conditions. Since my epiphany, I rebuilt our portfolio and the Fund’s performance has begun to track more in line with my expectations, including the current quarter which is something of a slump-buster if continued performance in April is any guide.

Normally, these letters are replete with economic views and forecasts, but currently, everything in global economics comes down to one question; will Hormuz open or not. I don’t feel particularly capable of answering that question any better than any other prognosticator. When you look at incentives, it’s in Iran’s interest to stall for time and do everything possible to run the clock, draw commodity inventories globally, and make things incredibly painful for everyone involved—with the goal of forestalling any future thoughts of regime change operations. For most everyone else involved, the goal is to open Hormuz before the world is crippled by a depression.

As you can imagine, the world cannot continue to draw petroleum inventories at the current pace before stuff breaks, and soon. It’s even worse when you look at other products like fertilizers where the world is dangerously close to missing the spring planting season.