Frank Martin has a good long term record .. he nailed the both the GFC and Tech bubble [he really nailed them!] … been bearish for a while..
Buffet said this about Frank Martin ..
"For many years I've enjoyed reading Frank Martin's letters. This collection contains much investment wisdom and, just as important, sets a standard for advisor-client relationship" Warren Buffett via "Speculative Contagion: An Antidote for Speculative Epidemics" by Frank Martin
See Martin's 2017 annual letter to investors below
On Cape Ratio .. “This metric better accounts for the cyclicality of earnings during the oscillations of the economy. When earnings are trending upward, the trailing 10-year moving average will understandably be less than earnings of the previous 12 months, providing a governor on excessive expectations of boom times. It works just as well to mitigate pessimism during downturns.”
“Costco, a remarkable business, is not impervious to competition. It currently sells at 32 times annual earnings. It sells for 47 times its 10-year earnings. This valuation is despite massive shifts and intense threats in basic consumer products. Amazon continues new forays into grocery and is growing its dominance in home goods. Walmart has brushed up the appearance of its stores and moved to revitalize its grocery game. Perhaps most importantly, Aldi is drawing cost-conscious millennial consumers just starting their families with a pared-down Costco model that requires no membership fee. Meanwhile, valuations of the company don’t seem to take such threats into account.”
