2025 Global Alts New York: Bruce Richards – AI Is Biggest Risk, Blockbuster Moment” For Those Who Fail To Adapt

At the 2025 Global Alts New York conference, Bruce Richards, CEO, Chairman, Managing Partner, and Co-Founder of Marathon Asset Management, offered profound insights into the current macroeconomic landscape, investment opportunities, and significant risks shaping the credit markets. Marathon, a leading global asset manager with $24 billion in assets, specializes in public and private credit markets. Moderated by Lionel Erdely, Co-CEO & CIO of Investcorp-Tages, the discussion provided a comprehensive overview of strategies for navigating complex financial terrains. Richards and Erdely have known each other for 20 years, having first met pre-GFC when Erdely was CIO of Lyxor.

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2025 Global Alts New York - Marathon Asset Management's Bruce Richards

A generally optimistic macro outlook

Richards began by sharing his generally optimistic perspective on the US economic outlook, a view that often distinguishes him from his peers. He highlighted that while growth in the first quarter might appear weak, offsetting tariff-induced slowdowns would lead to a strong second quarter. When melding the two, GDP for the first half of the year is projected to be slightly above 2%, with PCE inflation at 2.1%. Richards described this combination of 2% GDP and 2% inflation as "about as good as it gets". Looking ahead, he anticipates a slowdown to about 1.5% in the second half of the year, with inflation ticking up more towards 3% due to the impact of tariffs, which he stressed are a "one-time adjustment upward" and not a source of continued inflation.

Richards criticized the Federal Reserve's stance, noting that US rates (Fed funds at 4.5%) are too high relative to inflation and GDP, stating that Fed Chair Powell was "late to the party to raise rates" and will be "late to lower rates" if he waits for inflation to fully come back down. Crucially, Marathon maintains a "no recession" call for the next 12 months,