2025 Ben Graham Conference: Dr. Ed Yardeni Teases – Ray Dalio Does Not Want Us To Get Rich

Dr. Ed Yardeni, President of Yardeni Research, Inc., was a keynote speaker at the 2025 Ben Graham Conference. He states that he wishes his legacy to be remembered as "usually bullish, usually right".

Also our coverage of the 2025 Sohn Monaco Conference, 2025 Global Alts New York and the Best Alternative Investment Fund Conferences for 2025.

2025 Ben Graham Conference - Yardeni Research's Dr. Ed Yardeni

Ed Yardeni On The Roaring 2020s

Prediction and Performance

In 2019, Dr. Yardeni first predicted that the 2020s would be a "roaring" decade, and he believes this has certainly been the case during the first half of the decade. This outlook implies that the stock market will go higher and the economy will continue to grow, even if there are "issues that feed the pessimism". He sees no reason why the "roaring 2020s couldn't be followed by the roaring 2030s".

Historical Parallel (1920s)

Yardeni draws a parallel to the "roaring 1920s". He highlights the widespread pessimism at the start of that decade, which followed:

• World War I (The Great War): Millions died, and it was a "horrible" conflict that ended in 1918.
• The Spanish Flu Pandemic: Occurring in 1918 and 1919, it also killed millions of people.
• A Severe Depression: In the United States, there was a "pretty severe depression" in 1920, prior to economists concocting the term "recession". Despite these bleak beginnings, the 1920s "turned out to be an amazingly productive decade for the US economy" and the stock market "roared". He acknowledges that the 1920s "ended badly" but is confident about the current decade.

Ed Yardeni - Tariffs and Financial Market Influence

Historical Impact

The Great Depression was significantly impacted by the Smoot-Hawley Tariff passed by Congress in June 1930, which the president signed. This led to the stock market taking an "absolute dive," with the "great crash" starting in September-October 1929. Notably, by May 1930, half of the losses had been recovered, but "things really fell apart with tariff".

Current Tariff Concerns

Yardeni notes that the stock market was giving "warning signals about the tariffs" when it started to decline in 1929, observing what was happening in Washington and the enthusiasm for tariffs. He considers it "still possible" that current tariffs (referring to Trump tariffs) could lead to similar issues.

Financial Markets' Clout

Financial markets have "a lot of clout" with policymakers. Dr. Yardeni recounted an instance on CNBC on April 9th when the stock market suddenly went "straight up" because Trump backed off reciprocal tariffs, postponing them for 90 days.