Question: Which is more interesting - Sitting on a cruise ship wondering if your wife doesn't love you, or wondering about when the Fed is going to raise rates?
[dalio]
The answer - speculating about when the Fed will raise rates.
Why? Because it's always more fun guessing the unknown than dealing with the known.
With this as the background, here's some speculation on how the Fed might read Friday's BLS employment report and what they might do about it.
[drizzle]
How Will the Fed Read Friday's Employment Report?
Chart #1: Month-over-Month Employment Growth
The first figure is the popular month-over-month employment growth figure.
Overall, employment growth has been relatively strong over the past few years, with above-200K monthly job growth in 15 of the past...
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