Looking At The Economic Expansion: How Long Can It Last?

By most measures, the current economic expansion has lasted fairly long.  This, of course, begs the question: How long can this economic expansion keep going?

Here's a look at the historical cycles of the major economic indicators in the U.S.

Overall, although it's a risky baseline, the expansion could last another 2 to 4 years.  Over 4 years would be quite extraordinary.

Economic Expansion Employment

Here's the view of the employment picture.

Overall, at 5 years, the current expansion is reasonably strong in duration.  It's 2 years short of the 1980s prolonged expansion, and 4 years short of the incredibly long 1990s experience.

[buffett]

Economic Expansion The Wage Picture

Perhaps the most important...