Nomura On China: ‘The Correction Has Started’

Investors continue to watch Chinese markets for any sign that the country’s inevitable slowdown will turn into something worse. While property markets are noisy, a recent drop from 4Q13 levels has convinced analysts at Nomura that we are seeing the beginning of a steep drop.

“We had a high conviction that property investment growth will slow in 2014, but we did not expect such decisive evidence as early as Q1. To us, it is no longer a question of “if” but rather “how severe” the property market correction will be,” writes Nomura analyst Zhiwei Zhang.

China housing starts fall 20% from last year

The smoking gun is that new housing starts, a strong leading indicator for the real estate market as...