Analysts Tweak Jobs Estimates For March, Likely In The Wrong Direction

Every watcher of the labor market now knows that seasonally adjusted jobs number – 175K.  The +175K is about 5K above what the market expected.

The +175K makes the third month of an increasing trend in the seasonally adjusted job number, which is causing many analysts to raise their March jobs target higher.

With this as the background, how likely is next month’s job figure to come in below target?

Because the answer lies partly in how actual estimated counts get seasonally adjusted, here’s some background on the non-seasonally adjusted numbers.

The seasonally adjusted number of +175K is based upon the actual estimate of 136.183 million – the non-seasonally adjusted number – which came in up 750K over the prior month.

Seasonally adjusted and...

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