Packard Bets on an Ad-Tech Roll-Up at Sohn New York 2026

Ryan Packard, Managing Partner and CIO of Hiddenite Capital Partners, pitched a mobile advertising leader at the 2026 Sohn New York Conference on May 12. He set a three-year price target of $1,000 per share,double the stock’s current level,anchored on $50.00 in projected 2030 earnings and a 20x multiple. Packard framed the pitch around what he calls “AAA companies”: businesses that post consistently high returns on invested capital and channel the majority of free cash flow into value-accretive uses,M&A, buybacks, or dividends,rather than letting cash sit idle.

The designation comes with company. Packard placed AppLovin alongside Comfort Systems (FIX), Broadcom (AVGO), Constellation Software (CSU.CN), and TransDigm (TDG). Each posted six-year average returns on invested capital between 16 percent and 46 percent from 2019 through 2025. AppLovin landed at 31 percent, in line with Comfort Systems and ahead of Broadcom’s 24 percent. Free cash flow allocation skewed heavily toward M&A at 67 percent, with 11 percent going to buybacks and zero paid in dividends. TransDigm pushed 104 percent of free cash into acquisitions over the same stretch, funding the overage with debt; Constellation Software deployed 87 percent. The comparison positioned AppLovin alongside software and industrial roll-ups known for reinvesting profits at above-market rates rather than distributing them.

Packard opened by redefining the AAA acronym itself. Last year at Sohn he presented the framework as “Adept Advantaged Acquirers.” This year he swapped “Acquirers” for “Allocators,” a shift he attributed to what he termed “a generational moment for extraordinary growth” among companies that can harness both M&A and organic expansion. He cited AI as a central driver,both for revenue growth and for operating efficiency gains,and said the opportunity to capture those two threads at once sets this moment apart.