The Following Is an Investment Opinion On Nova Minerals Ltd (NASDAQ:NVA) (ASX:NVA) Issued by Spruce Point Capital Management
NEW YORK, February 20, 2026 — Spruce Point Capital Management, LLC (“Spruce Point” or “we” or “us”), a New York-based investment management firm that focuses on forensic research and short-selling, today issued a detailed report entitled “A Critical Evaluation of Nova Minerals” that outlines why we believe and estimate that shares of Nova Minerals Ltd. (ASX/Nasdaq: NVA) (“Nova” or the “Company”) face up to 45% – 60% potential near-term downside to approximately $2.50 – $3.50 per ADS, and up to 100% long-term downside risk under certain scenarios, representing material risk of market underperformance. Download and view the report, disclaimers, additional information, and exclusive updates by visiting www.sprucepointcap.com.
Nova Minerals Overview:
Nova Minerals is a gold, critical minerals, and antimony exploration company advancing the 85% owned Estelle Project in Alaska which comprises of 803 State of Alaska mining claims covering in aggregate of 127,102 acres (514km2). Nova’s vision is to concurrently develop the Estelle Project to become a world class, tier-one, global gold producer, and to secure a U.S. domestic supply chain for the strategic mineral antimony, from mining to a refined product. In 2025, the U.S. Department of War awarded its subsidiary $43.4m to advance the Project.
After conducting a forensic review of Nova Minerals Ltd. (Nasdaq / ASX: NVA, “Nova” or “the Company”) and its ambitions of becoming an integrated producer of antimony and Tier 1 gold miner, we believe that investor expectations are too high, and it faces significant challenges in commercial efforts (e.g. lack of infrastructure, community pushback, harsh Alaskan weather conditions, and lack of proof of concept) that may not be fully reflected in its valuation. While the mining exploration and resource production business is notoriously risky with many factors outside of the Company’s control, we express concerns with management’s lack of consistent focus, inability to meet deadlines, and difficulties realizing value in previously promoted strategic investments. We estimate that Nova’s share price has near-term downside risk of approximately 45% – 60% ($2.50 – $3.50 per ADS), but under certain scenarios, including a potential loss of a $43.5m Department of War award, up to 100% downside and we believe it is likely to significantly underperform the junior gold mining index.
The report highlights several key concerns with the Company, including:
- We express concerns with the backgrounds and business relationships of management, the Board, and shareholders to individuals charged with market manipulation by the Australian regulator (ASIC) and the SEC.
- We are very troubled by Nova’s consulting geologist who is also responsible for data evaluation and quality control. He is both a “Competent Person” and “Qualified Person” under ASX listing rules and U.S. securities laws. We have unsuccessfully attempted to verify his existence. Furthermore, his certification that he is a graduate of Krivoy Rog National University, Ukraine, 1992 with a Master of Science in Mine Geology and Engineering does not reconcile with our findings.
- We are concerned by Nova’s frequent pivots in focus and challenges in realizing the potential of other promoted investments. The Company has also repeatedly missed its own timetables for project development.
- Lack of infrastructure is a major hurdle. There is currently no road or energy pipeline available to access the mountainous valley where the Company’s heavily promoted Estelle project is located..
Please note that the items summarized in this email are expanded upon and supported with data, public filings and records, and images in Spruce Point’s full report. As a reminder, our full report, along with its investment disclaimers, can be downloaded and viewed at www.SprucePointCap.com.
As disclosed, Spruce Point and/or its clients have a short position in Nova Minerals Ltd (Nasdaq: NVA) and owns derivative securities that stand to net benefit if its share price falls. Following publication of the report, we intend to continue transacting in the securities covered therein, and we may be long, short, or neutral at any time hereafter regardless of our initial opinion. For additional important information, please review the “Full Legal Disclaimer” contained in the report.
About Spruce Point
Spruce Point Capital Management, LLC is a forensic fundamentally-oriented investment manager that focuses on short-selling, value and special situation investment opportunities.
