The Danger Of “Vision Macro” And How To Avoid It

“Our knowledge can only be finite, while our ignorance must necessarily be infinite.” ~ Karl Popper

Q4 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc

Something that’s helped me in my trading journey is adopting the practice of multivariate critical thinking (MCT).

MCT is the application of considering multiple hypotheses and then dispassionately applying critical judgment to each. It requires updating the probabilistic weighting for each, as new information becomes available — practical Bayesian analysis.

This seems simple and easy, and on the surface it is, or at least should be. But the difficulties come in its application. Specifically concerning the “dispassionate” part.

The...