Emerging Markets Cycle

Often times investment analysts recommend “the emerging markets” as if it is one monolith that should be bought or sold in a broad keystroke. Capital Economics Neil Shearing, however, sees distinct sovereign regions and their market environments for what they are: some are past their prime and un-investable, while others appear at the top of the Emerging market cycle and headed lower. The ones to watch, however, are those emerging regions that have begun their climb and have a long runway to ascend upward. In an August 14 report, Shearing grouped the 36 largest emerging markets into a “Growth League” and charted their location on a Emerging market cycle graph to identify opportunity in what they call a “permanently...