US policy uncertainty and China pose the greatest risks for growth next year, say analysts at one big bank.
The current U.S. economic expansion, started in 2009, is the third longest on record. While it is expected to have enough steam to cross February 2018 and become the second longest one, it would need far more to carry on for nearly two years – until May 2019 – and become the longest recorded expansion ever.
Is that even a reasonable prospect?
Societe Generale believes it is but key to it is President Donald Trump’s promised tax cut. Without it, the French bank asserts, growth in the U.S. economy could slow down as early as the second half of 2018.
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