Bernstein Says Trump Tweets Are Active Manager Risk

As Donald J. Trump was inaugurated the 45 US President today, he did so with his Twitter feed ablaze with 11 Trump tweets. While it is unknown if the decidedly generic if mild-mannered tweets were from his own hand, an automated timed software program or an aide, the issue of the US President moving the market with tweets was addressed by the Bernstein quantitative team. The problem for active managers is that the Presidential tweets can be unpredictable relative to idiosyncratic corporate targets and are likely to punish active investment managers most.

Forecasting Trump tweets is the problem

To model Trump tweets, Bernstein’s...