If You’re Shocked That Trump Won You Shouldn’t Be Managing Money
Guest post by Jonathan Rochford, CFA, Portfolio Manager, Narrow Road Capital Pty Ltd.
In the aftermath of the US presidential election, Donald Trump’s victory is continuously being called “shocking”. The reality is that the result was not a shock at all. The graphic from Real Clear Politics below is their final prediction of where the states would land, published on the day before the election. All Trump needed to do to overcome Clinton’s slender lead was win a few thousand more votes in New Hampshire. Anyone who looked at this graphic alone would have said that the only certainty was a close race.
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