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UBS Wants To Predict Stock Market Correction Date But Can't

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Mark Melin
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On a day when none other than the Financial Times runs a headline that highlights central bank “distortion” in Japanese stock markets, a related event is noted. Just before Bill Gross took the central banks to the woodshed, calling Janet Yellen a master of market manipulation and pointed to ugly results, UBS Global Quantitative Analyst Paul Winter wrote a research report titled “When is the stock market likely to correct?”

This is almost a click-bait type headline, because for a banker to infer discussion of a particular market crash timeframe is a hot topic being handicapped among analysts. How do the dots connect, particularly as Winter discusses "asset bubbles" but does not use the words “central bank” in...

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Mark Melin is an alternative investment practitioner whose specialty is recognizing the impact of beta market environment on a technical trading strategy. A portfolio and industry consultant, wrote or edited three books including High Performance Managed Futures (Wiley 2010) and The Chicago Board of Trade’s Handbook of Futures and Options (McGraw-Hill 2008) and taught a course at Northwestern University's executive education program.