Initial Claims Figures Statistical Noise or Real Growth Problem Story?

The Department of Labor released their advanced estimates of initial and continuing unemployment insurance claims this morning.  Initial claims came in at a seasonally adjusted rate of 339,000, an increase of 16,000 from the revised 355,000 of the prior week.  Initial claims peaked at 670,000 in the last week of March 2009, and, up until recent months, have been in a downward trend, with the decline from peak to trough standing at about 49% (down 331,000).

Moving in the same general direction as initial claims, continuing unemployment insurance came in yesterday at an even 3 million.  Continuing claims peaked in the final...