JPMorgan’s quant master Marko Kolanovic is once again taking a mathematical look at the markets. Unlike his previous pronouncements, he is not predicting an immediate market crash, but rather assesses the potential to enter a longer term bear market. To understand where the stock market is headed, he takes a yearly outlook noting a divergence of opinion with the option market on the potential for stocks to enter a bear market. This is done as he considers correlation ratios with bonds and notes a much discussed correlation divergence between stocks and oil, putting on display cross-market correlation skills that point…
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- How many analysts have successfully predicted a flash crash? Anyone? Anyone????
- This bull market is getting old, and in today's markets, as in society, old is sometimes shunned, sometimes not
- Kolanovic says market has a "higher than 25% chance" of entering bear territory, as he takes the over in "The Price Is Right" game
- Relative value hedge funds arousal: Did I hear a market environment of dislocation from a statistical mean and potential reversion opportunity?
- Kolanovic's analysis has changed in terms of time frame as well as becoming more adept and not making such specific predictions
- Kolanovic considers bluster from the Fed and four rate hikes in an election year as potential causation for an event that people don't want an invitation to attend
- Kolanovic needs to clearly cite his sources if his critique of high frequency trading, volatility targeting or managed futures trend following is to be taken seriously by regulators
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