Global Growth Will Be Weak, But Probability Of Global Recession In 2016 Is Low: BAML

Fading shocks, improving fundamentals and supportive policy should boost global growth to 3.4% in 2016, up from 3.1% this year, notes BAML.

Ethan S. Harris and team at Bank of America Merrill Lynch in their report “Global Economic 2016 Year Ahead” note the probability of a global recession seems relatively low in the next two years.

Global growth: Fed hike unlikely to be a major shock to financial markets

Harris et al. argue the Federal Reserve is poised to begin a policy normalization process with a 25bp rate hike at its December meeting. Meanwhile, the analysts anticipate the ECB, BOJ and PBOC will all ease further within the next few months. They say that this policy divergence will likely impact...